Archeologists using the latest LIDAR (light detection and ranging) technology in the dense jungles of Guatemala recently announced a discovery of a massive and hitherto unknown ancient Mayan city that dates back possibly to 1000 B.C. The discovery upended much of the existing consensus about Mayan civilization. It ought also to help upend enthusiasm for the latest repackaging of an old utopian idea for today: the “15-minute city, now being proposed for the city of Oxford in the U.K., among other places.
15 minute city zones that have been proposed by Oxford City Council as part of the Local Plan 2040 have garnered significant controversy. The plan, which will see traffic filters installed on six roads as part of a £6.5m trial, is set to commence in 2024. Under these new filters, residents will be able to drive freely around their own neighbourhoods but will be fined up to £70 for driving into other neighbourhoods through the filters. The plan’s aim is to create neighbourhoods in Oxford where ‘essential’ facilities are accessible by a walking distance of up to 15 minutes. These facilities were determined by a 2022 civilian consultation of over 5,000 stakeholders.
The City Council has asserted that the plan’s intent is not to coerce residents into staying in one neighbourhood, but to address ‘awful’ congestion in the city centre which it argues is making public transport in Oxford ‘unviable’. The traffic filters will not take the form of physical barricades; instead, new traffic cameras which can read number plates will be installed.
It's a terrible idea, of course, and one that's already receiving serious pushback. Critics rightly point to the fascist implications of this latest "green" lunacy, a new kind of lockdown that, like the old one, is for your own good.
The modern fondness for Rousseauvian primitivism is a throwback to the Swiss-French philosopher's prelapsarian "noble savage" theory and posits a halcyon Golden Age that reasonable people understand never existed. The discovered Mayan area featured extensive urban infrastructure including even large sports stadia. There was one aspect of the story that deserves special notice: the imaging detected 110 miles of raised roadways, which the archeologists are calling “the first freeway system in the world.” The Romans might have something to say about that claim, but the point is that even in the most dense urban areas of antiquity, the desire for mobility radiating outward from the central city manifested itself in the form of large roads, centuries before there would be motorized vehicles to use them.
There is a lesson here for our time, especially for the latest generation of urban “planners,” whose new dreamy schemes for urban utopia never seem to learn from past failures. Above all, citizens desire mobility, including access to the edge of the city and beyond. The purpose of the city is for humans not simply to live together, but to live well. If a city fails at that basic purpose, it will decline and eventually collapse. The Mayan cities of antiquity that disappeared beneath a jungle canopy find their modern analogue in Detroit, which has largely become an asphalt jungle as a result of decades of appalling government.
For decades liberals assailed “white flight” when the middle class fled Detroit and other central cities in large numbers. More recently, liberals turned on a dime and assailed “gentrification” when professional class younger whites moved back to central cities and displaced minority residents and transformed entire neighborhoods. This trend abruptly stopped with Covid and the recent spike in crime in urban areas.
The obliviousness about the reasons why people choose to leave—or return to—urban cores brings us back to the “the 15-minute city.” The concept is simple: cities should be designed and built such that every urban dweller can meet all or nearly all of his or her basic needs within a 15-minute radius on foot. The idea for the 15-minute city is said to have originated less than a decade ago, but the ideal of “walkable” cities has been around for decades. Twenty years ago it went by “the new urbanism.” Ten years before that it was called “smart growth.” Probably the equivalent idea was expressed when the pyramids—the skyscrapers of antiquity—were built in Egypt and Guatemala. All that's new is the label.
When each successive label is scrapped off one finds not a thoughtful appreciation of form and function in urban design, or even a nostalgia for small-town America of a bygone era. Before long you discover a hatred of the automobile, a fixation for mass transit, and disdain for middle class life and especially the large-scale enterprises (think WalMart or Costco) that have improved the material lives of the middle class. The fetish for expanding mass transit, even as ridership on current systems continues to fall everywhere, and removing lanes on existing roadways to make way for barely-used bike lanes while making car traffic worse, are examples of this coercive utopianism at work.
All of these urban visions, under whatever label, invariably involve one thing above all other: more money and power for centralized planners to impose their vision on everyone. It should not surprise us that the enthusiasts for the idea are the very same people who think we should eat bugs, abolish private property, and submit to endless mandatory Covid shots, all to reduce our "carbon footprint."
Although the 15-minute boiled eggheads behind this idea like to claim the mantle of Jane Jacobs’s famous analysis of functional neighborhoods in The Death and Life of Great American Cities, they have the matter precisely backwards. Jacobs’s main insight was that ideal neighborhoods were spontaneous, organic things, and not the product of deliberate centralized planning. It was the early version of “urban renewal” that prompted her rebellion against the pretension of the planners.
The simplest way to promote truly walkable neighborhoods is simply to allow them to exist. The kind of mixed-used, variable density development that would make for more walkable neighborhoods is prohibited by most zoning codes and regional general plans today. But few of our enlightened elites propose scrapping or relaxing our stifling planning regulations or even emulating Houston’s very permissive land use regime. Houston remains the last major American city without traditional zoning, and it is no coincidence that it is the easiest major metropolitan area to start a business, is a magnet for striving minorities, has less income inequality than progressive-run cities in the north or west, and offers affordable housing.
In other words, an outline of a truly 15-minute city would take only 5 seconds to achieve. But there’s no fun (or power) in that for our squads of reimagineers.
Forcing Home Builders to follow some building plan by someone who day dreams about living ina place that looks like a anthill
The upshot of a 15 minute city is that if you are 16+ minutes from your workplace, you will need to relocate or find other work. For example, my wife and I both work, I'm 25 min from the job. I'd have to quit the larger pay check, and take whatever I can find closer to home, or relocate, or both; hard NO to that. Similarly with all other things - school, shopping, doctor's office etc. No way are all the necessities, not to mention conveniences, going to be provided in each 15 minute zone. Moving to a more desirable zone will require permission, as otherwise too many other people will do likewise. The only way for 15 minute cities to work at scale is for "planners" to assign us to a job, housing, medical facility, shopping, schools etc; in other words, we become like Medieval serfs tied to a location and living at the whim of the aristocracy and their henchmen.
Which is not a coincidence.
Not enough opportunities for graft.
You will have calluses and like them.
Regarding "The simplest way to promote truly walkable neighborhoods is simply to allow them to exist. The kind of mixed-used, variable density development that would make for more walkable neighborhoods is prohibited by most zoning codes and regional general plans today"
This is another reason why over-regulated Japan is actually sane. There is basically no regulation stopping you turning your garage into a workshop or your front room into a nail salon (and so people do this all the time) ... there are sometimes safety standards you have to meet and parking can be challenging but those are independent of where you locate your business. Every city in Japan, heck everywhere in Japan, is mixed light industry, commerce and residential. You see it on almost every street. Now sure there are large supermarkets, large factories etc. as well but if you want to you can walk to your job / school and supply your basic necessities in most larger urban areas
All you need accessible within a 15 minute walk. Sounds more like a monastery than a city. I see the residents of Oxford balancing large wicker baskets on their heads as they walk from Grocery Store to Pharmacy to ABC Store. Or maybe the Red Flyer Wagon will regain new popularity.
Well I agree, promote them by encouraging them via zoning and such. It's not a bad idea. And actually fining people for mobility is a very poor idea. Los Angeles once had the idiotic idea to facilitate downtown, hi-rise growth by BANNING PARKING. What? That failed utterly in the 1970s but guess what, it seems to be getting a rebirth today. There is no idiocy so great that urban planners won't embrace it, just paint it green and try again. In fact, fining people for driving into the city centers - may be defensible. Awkward as heck, but so are the city centers. Again Los Angeles is setting (has already set) the mode for Worst Urban Planning In America Today, and the real puzzle is developers who pour money into it anyway. But after COVID no idiocy is too great to be funded with billions and billions of dollars.
Did a tour of duty in Detroit many years ago. It wasn’t just “white flight”. As the old “vertical” auto plants become economically unviable and the city descended into post riot anarchy and kleptocracy anyone with a skilled job and a family to raise, black or white left. Worked with a lot of black professionals that were the kids of those people. Mom and Dad (usually an autoworker or allied trade) upped sticks and moved to the first or second belt of suburbs. Often near the newer auto or parts plants. What you ended up with was a massive case of sociological adverse selection.
When I lived in Houston 30 or so years ago a zoning proposal was put on the ballot. An ad came out saying something like "Vote Yes for zoning - make Houston like Detroit!"
It went down in flames.
In Houston you can have things like houses made out of beer cans and housing prices remain low.