'Record' Temperatures: a Statistical Certainty

Buck Throckmorton07 Jun, 2024 4 Min Read
Actually, just another day at the beach for Mother Gaia.

Summertime is here again, and over the next several months there will be sweltering heatwaves in various locations around the globe. Where there are “near record” temperatures, we’ll learn from concerned journalists that “experts” are warning this is the new normal, except that it will only get worse. Even more alarming, we’ll be told, are all the record high temperatures being recorded at specific locations for a given date, which therefore constitute proof positive of "global warming." Most foreboding of all will be reports that a certain location has recorded its all-time highest temperature, which means the climate apocalypse is now upon us.

This is all nonsense. Assuming the weather stations are not compromised in the first place by proximity to heat retaining roads and structures, it is still an absolute, statistical certainty that on average there will thousands of record-high daily temperatures in the United States each year. Further, it is also a statistical certainty that on average there will be hundreds of all-time record-high temperatures recorded at various stations.

Stop the insanity first.

Temperature records have been kept, depending on location, for about 100 to 140 years. If we split the difference, it is about 120 years on average. Each weather station has a historical “record high” for each day of the year, and also a “record low” for each day of the year. Therefore, with 365 record-high and 365 record-low temperatures at each station over the past 120 years, an equal distribution (e.g. 365 divided by 120) would mean that each station should record, on average about three record highs and three record lows every year.

Where daily high temperature records are recorded, fear-mongering politicians and the media hype it up as proof of the climate apocalypse. The truth is that anything fewer than three record high temperatures per year for that location is statistically below average.

Per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its domestic database is composed of almost 15,000 weather stations. So, with 15,000 weather stations across the U.S., and with each expected to have on average 3 record highs per year, there should be approximately 45,000 record daily high temperatures per year recorded in the United States.

But what about the “all-time record-high temperatures” that are being recorded at various locations? Those are also statistical certainties. Taking those 15,000 weather stations and dividing by 120 years means that on average there should be about 125 all-time record high temperatures recorded in the U.S. each year. The European press also gets very excited about all-time record high temperatures. There are more than 23,000 European meteorological reporting stations across Europe and the Mediterranean. Divided by 120 years means that on average there should be approximately 190 European weather stations that report an all-time, record-high temperature, each and every year.

Plus, they lie.

Of course, “average” doesn’t mean “normal,” some years are hotter than average, with lots of new records, and others are milder than average, with few new records. And don’t forget, when there are record low temperatures, the eco-communists still blame “climate change” for such “extreme weather.” Everything discussed herein about record high temperatures also applies to record lows – there are just as many.

The climate hysterics’ zeal to report record high temperatures also results in dishonest reporting on fraudulent temperature readings. A weather station in the Mungeshpur neighborhood of New Delhi, India recently recorded a temperature of 52.9°C (127°F), the highest temperature ever recorded in India by several degrees. The global media responded in predictable fashion, hyping the “record heat” as being caused by "climate change." As it turns out, while it was miserably hot in New Delhi – a place that routinely gets miserably hot -- it was not record heat. Rather, the Mungeshpur weather station was found to have faulty sensors. No other stations had temperature readings similar to Mungeshpur’s.

Last summer the European Space Agency published a report that dishonestly conflated ground surface temperatures with air temperature readings. The historical temperature database is of air temperatures recorded two meters above the ground, not ground surface temperatures, which are warmer. The ESA warned of “air temperatures expected to climb to 48°C on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia – potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe.” The European media went into a frenzy, and reports of the “hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe” also received extensive coverage in the U.S. It was all fraudulent and dishonest.

“What we experienced over the past days was the most intense climate lie since temperature recording began,” reported Germany’s Achtung Reichelt here on the implications of the ESA’s sloppy, manipulative press release and the media firestorm that ensued. “The problem with that report is that none of it is true.” In Sicily the temperature reached only 32°C over the weekend – a far cry from 48°C, which illustrates the great difference between ground surface temperature and readings taken 2 meters above the ground.

It’s helpful to remember that the “climate scientists” who chose to deceptively report 32°C heat as 48°C heat are the same “experts” dispensing so much other faux-science to credulous media mouthpieces. Never forget just how dishonest climate science has become, such as NOAA's systematically altering historical temperature records to create warming trends that didn’t exist before NOAA made cooling adjustments to temperatures from the past.

While dishonest weather agencies such as NOAA and ESA increase the likelihood of "record high" temperatures being reported, it is a near certainty that even without those corrupted government-funded scientists, there would still be abundant temperature records set this summer. It’s not due to global warming, it’s probability and statistics.

Buck Throckmorton is a writer ("co-blogger") at the Ace of Spades HQ blog. His career includes many years in banking and commercial lending, as well as a stint with an American auto manufacturer. Buck's writing often takes a critical look at electric vehicles, "green" energy, and woke capital. Twitter: @BuckThrockmort; email: buck.throckmorton@protonmail.com


See All

5 comments on “'Record' Temperatures: a Statistical Certainty”

  1. Someone other than me finally noticed - it is a statistical certainty that temperature records will be broken every single year, if nothing whatsoever changes.

    But it is not just temperatures. Wind, rain, snowfall, hail, wildfires, drought, tornados, hurricanes...It is statistically likely that each and every year records in the United States will be broken for each parameter. The more parameters you add, the more records you set.

  2. Unfortunately, you've botched it. Take, for example, the highest three temperatures over the interval. The order matters, all three might hold the crown for a time or only one. Typical, statistics courses use an example of two kinds of balls mixed together, drawn with or without replacement.

  3. The other problem is that the “record” temperatures are above the previous number by only tenths, or even hundredths of a degree. I doubt there are many weather stations that are accurate to even a degree or two.

  4. For many years I worked in the field of electric power load forecasting. Electricity sales (at least to residential and commercial customers) are highly weather sensitive, and my models accounted for annual heating and cooling degree days, assuming "normal" (last 30-year average) temperatures.
    Problem was that for many of the stations in rural areas I used as data source were maintained by volunteers whose commitment was spotty to say the least. Often found weeks of missing data, and so our modeling efforts were limited and we had to make significant assumptions and adjustments.

    My point is that even WITH current data available, the assertion of "record high" or "record low" temperatures is often specious.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *