The government body responsible for keeping Australian lights on, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), issued its latest annual ten-year ‘outlook’ report on September 6. The report in question assesses the reliability of the supply of electricity in meeting the demand over coming years. We learn, in fact, that it cannot be relied upon at all.
Never fear though, each bummer is an opportunity. Very well disguised opportunities, realists might think. But for AEMO the more bummers the better. Hence the title of its report: “2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities.” Oh joy! "Many factors are driving AEMO’s 2023 forecast identifying great development opportunities than in earlier reports." And, pray tell, what are these “factors” (all direct quotes, overlook tortuous syntax:
- Generator unplanned outage rates are forecast higher than previously, reflecting recent trends of poor performance among some generator technologies.
- New and improved weather data and modelling for renewable generation has improved the accuracy of variable renewable energy correlations with maximum demand, identifying a higher forecast occurrence of low wind and high demand conditions in Victoria, resulting in higher forecast reliability risks for South Australia and Victoria.
- Many new wind, solar, battery and pumped hydro developments have advanced… however solutions which orchestrate and coordinate consumers’ generation and storage devices to support reliability have not yet demonstrated success at significant scale.
In a nutshell: deliberately running down coal-power stations lessens their reliability; the renewable energy which exists is not up to scratch and its further development is going at a snail’s pace; the wind is not playing ball; people are recalcitrant in not installing more solar panels, batteries and back-to-the-grid smart meters; and, duh, forcing households and businesses off the use of gas means more demand for electricity. And the bottom line, without a hint of its absurdity:
With up to 62 percent of [the] coal fleet now expected to close before 2033 [the] scale of opportunity to meet an imminent and growing need for firm capacity, new forms of energy production, and significant consumer energy investments is unparalleled in Australia's energy history. Imminent and urgent investment is needed to meet this opportunity, or the reliability of the national electricity market will be at risk.
Let’s all of us who have retained our sanity under the onslaught of maniacal climate cultism ask a question: how has it come to this? The reliability of the electricity supply has never been an issue in the modern Western world. I can’t remember my grandad wondering whether the lights would come on. Now governments are determinedly abandoning reliable means of generating electricity; and, gallingly and risibly, lauding and subsidising "opportunities" to combat the energy-impoverishment that they are creating. Arsonists burning down mansions while offering shanties to replace them.
Pursuing an energy policy of such monumental folly simply couldn’t happen without political unity tickets and a complicit press. It’s a failure of democracy. Stupidity and tyranny thrive in the absence of adversarial politics and an independent press holding governments to account. And that’s mostly where we are when it comes to climate policy.