Sometimes a Great Notion

The International Energy Agency concludes after study that the Biden notion of spending trillions of dollars to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to green energy” is unworkable. In a 287 page tract  which analyzes scores of data  it notes that the plan relies on mining industries and infrastructure for “energy transition minerals”(ETMs) which do not exist:

The IEA finds that with a global energy transition like the one President Biden envisions, demand for key minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel and rare-earth metals would explode, rising by 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900% and 700%, respectively, by 2040.

Not only are these industries and technologies non-existent, but the lavishly funded proposed transition  provides nothing to fund and build them.

Worse news for those believing this transition will provide environmental benefits, “the world would face daunting environmental, economic and social challenges, along with geopolitical risks” if it proceeds with this plan, which in any event would, as the IEA notes  would take years from discovery of the minerals to production. Even if we started tomorrow, new ETM production would only take place after 2035 and certainly makes nonsensical the goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by that date.

Here are some of the environmental consequences of  the necessary considerable  increase in mining ETMs:

And then there are the costs. The report observes that such a sharp increase in demand for ETMs will substantially drive up commodity prices with deleterious effects throughout the global economy. 

When it comes to batteries, the IEA notes this could ‘eat up’ the anticipated reductions in manufacturing costs expected from the ‘learning effects’ of increased production. It’s an outcome that runs counter to the narrative of inevitably cheaper green-energy machines over time.

Top men.

This is not the first or only time that great (energy) notions seem to have been written by kindergarteners in crayon on butcher paper. I remember distinctly the idea that solar panels were the thing to reduce use of electricity and improve the environment, without taking into consideration the substantial use of energy and resources involved in creating glass and aluminum or the environmental damage in their creation. Aluminum, last time I looked, is one of the most energy-intensive materials to produce, one of  the largest consumer of energy on a per-weight basis,  and one of the largest contributors to carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and the largest electric energy consumer of all industries.

 Even the production of photovoltaic panels themselves involves substantial environmental risk, a risk amplified by the poor oversight and controls in countries where most are produced. And the panel production requires a great deal of water and carbon based energy:

Places that depend largely on coal have the most carbon-intense electricity in the world: Chinese electricity is a good example, having roughly twice the carbon intensity of U.S. electricity. This fits with the results of researchers in Illinois at Argonne National Laboratory and Northwestern University. In a report published this past June, they found that the carbon footprint of photovoltaic panels made in China is indeed about double that of those manufactured in Europe.

It’s hard to tell whether the IEA’s considered analysis of the costs and infeasibility of the Biden energy plan will throw some cold water on it, but if there’s any intelligence left in Congress or the White House, it should.

Now It's Six Months to Doomsday

Stop me if you've heard this one before:

World has six months to avert climate crisis, says energy expert

The world has only six months in which to change the course of the climate crisis and prevent a post-lockdown rebound in greenhouse gas emissions that would overwhelm efforts to stave off climate catastrophe, one of the world’s foremost energy experts has warned. “This year is the last time we have, if we are not to see a carbon rebound,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.

“The next three years will determine the course of the next 30 years and beyond,” Birol told the Guardian. “If we do not [take action] we will surely see a rebound in emissions. If emissions rebound, it is very difficult to see how they will be brought down in future. This is why we are urging governments to have sustainable recovery packages.”

Carbon dioxide emissions plunged by a global average of 17% in April, compared with last year, but have since surged again to within about 5% of last year’s levels.

Now, hold on there, pardner. What we have here is an argument from authority, which posits that we must accept the equation that carbon dioxide = pollution. Furthermore, we must also accept the thesis that the entirely unnecessary coronavirus lockdown has been a happy event that has reduced said "pollutants" to near-optimal levels, but that the bad old days will soon be upon us again if we don't stop the increase in pink elephants... er, carbon emissions, right now.

The corrupted "scientific" Left has been moving in this direction practically from the start of the coronavirus hoax. As I wrote on this site recently:

It's long been obvious that the panic over the coronavirus -- and the draconian "solutions" to it -- is all part of the warmup for "climate change" strictures as we go forward. Having accustomed both the European and American publics to the thoroughly unconstitutional restrictions placed upon the citizenry in the name of "safety," the surging Left will use them as the template for how they plan to destroy the Western economies and functionally enslave the people as the sheep shout hosannas for having been saved from the invisible bug. They're prepared to elide the public's temporary fixation on the Wuhan virus, which has put some "green energy" projects on the back burner, and bring on their punitive Green New Deal as soon as the immediate crisis is over.

By leveraging a variation of the annual flu into a hair-on-fire international, media-fueled panic, the "climate-change" crew has succeeded in getting many of their policy prescriptions implemented in a flash by preying on peoples' fears and politicians' limitless thirst for exerting power. Throw in the manipulated figurehead of a damaged Swedish teenage scold standing in for the Oracle of Delphi, climatology division, and you have a movement that was only briefly shouldered aside by the mayhem of BLM/Antifa, but is now roaring back.

The media is doing its part to slow the reopening of the economies by constantly harping on the number of new Wuhan Flu infections, especially in the United States -- handy, because they can beat President Trump with it, laugh at the red states who are now discovering the extent of the virus via the very same testing the media was shouting for  two months ago -- as if infection = death. But simplistic equations is what the America media is all about these days.

According, the IEA is now prepping its part of the battlespace with a new report, which begins:

The unprecedented health emergency and economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic risks to be a setback for clean energy innovation efforts at a time in which faster progress is needed. The report quantifies the needs for technology innovation and investment for a cleaner and more resilient energy sector at net-zero emissions. It identifies key technology attributes that can help accelerate innovation cycles.

This is a lie, of course -- far from being a "setback," the lockdowns provide the framework the Left has long been seeking for the imposition of draconian economic measures. For our own good, of course.

The report also offers five key innovation principles for delivering net-zero emissions. It highlights issues requiring immediate attention, such as the importance of governments maintaining research and development funding at planned levels through 2025 and considering raising it in strategic areas.

Ever helpful, Britain's left-wife Guardian sums up the report's key findings:

[The IEA has} set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.

Creating jobs must be the priority for countries where millions have been thrown into unemployment by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns. The IEA’s analysis shows that targeting green jobs – such as retrofitting buildings to make them more energy efficient, putting up solar panels and constructing wind farms – is more effective than pouring money into the high-carbon economy.

Proving once again the validity of our own John O'Sullivan's Law that "all organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing," the IEA was founded in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo and resulting "energy crisis," an event that gave the U.S. soaring gasoline prices, the 55-mph speed limit and the wholly useless Department of Energy under Jimmy Carter. The eventual weakening of the cartel got American speed limits back to where they ought to be, and the advent of fracking and American energy independence brought prices down. The DoE, of course, is still with us.

Originally, the IEA was supposed to keep the supplies of oil coming in order not to crippled the Western economies. Now, having been taken over by a cabal of its enemies (the late Robert Conquest's Third Law of Politics), it works precisely against its initial objectives and mandate. But such is the way of all Western institutions these days.